The Conference Board

 

Economic Business Meeting

From the Chief Economist

Bart van Ark
Bart van Ark

Cautious Consumer Keeps U.S. Recovery Dampened
Last month we pointed out how capex would be a bright spot for the economy in the first quarter, suggesting business had regained some confidence. ... more

Also:
Investment Key to U.S. Recovery
Struggling to climb out of recession
Rough road back to solid growth
Recovery likely to experience pushback in early 2010

 

The Conference Board Economics Watch™

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 Members Only

The U.S. Economic Forecast

Updated: March 10, 2010
Percentage change, seasonally adjusted annual rates (except where note)

2009

 

 

2010

2011

2009

2010

2011

IV Q*

I Q

II Q

III Q

IV Q

I Q

Annual

Annual

Annual

Real GDP

5.9

2.6

2.4

0.7

1.4

2.1

-2.4

2.6

2.0

Real Consumer Spending

1.7

2.5

1.7

1.5

0.9

1.1

-0.6

1.8

1.6

Housing Starts mil. Units

0.55

0.61

0.63

0.65

0.72

0.81

0.55

0.65

0.99

Real Capital Spending

6.5

4.4

3.6

-3.2

-1.3

1.4

-17.7

1.0

2.2

Net Exports Bil. '00$

-347.1

-378.1

-381.5

-379.5

-377.8

-377.2

-355.4

-379.2

-389.7


* Actual Value


Global Economic Outlook

The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2010 projects output growth for major regions of the world economy and the world as a whole for 2009, 2010, and 2011-2016, and takes into account macroeconomic as well as business dynamics such as changes in consumer and labor markets and relative costs. It is built via a wide range of instruments including The Conference Board Total Economy Database for 100-plus countries, Leading Economic Indexes for 10 countries/regions, and exclusive input about the business environment captured from The Conference Board member companies’ executives.

Published annually in the November issue of StraightTalk®, the Outlook is updated regularly online.

2000-2008

2009

2010

2011-2016

 

Distribution of world output 2008

GDP growth (based on TED)

Contribution to world GDP growth

Projected GDP growth

Contribution to world GDP growth

Projected GDP growth

Contribution to world GDP growth

Projected GDP growth

Contribution to world GDP growth

US

17.9%

2.2

0.5

-2.4

-0.4

2.0

0.3

2.0

0.3

EU-15

17.6%

1.9

0.4

-4.1

-0.7

0.6

0.1

1.0

0.1

Japan

5.2%

1.3

0.1

-5.4

-0.3

1.5

0.1

0.5

0.0

Other

7.4%

3.5

0.3

-2.4

-0.2

2.1

0.1

1.9

0.1

Advanced Economies

48.1%

2.1

1.2

-3.3

-1.6

1.5

0.7

1.5

0.6

     

China

14.2%

11.5

1.3

8.0

1.2

8.5

1.3

7.5

1.2

India

5.0%

7.5

0.3

6.0

0.3

7.0

0.4

8.0

0.5

Other developing Asia

5.7%

5.5

0.3

3.0

0.2

6.5

0.4

7.0

0.5

Latin America

8.1%

4.1

0.3

-0.5

0.0

2.5

0.2

4.0

0.4

Middle East

6.2%

5.3

0.2

3.0

0.2

3.7

0.2

4.0

0.3

Africa

3.0%

5.6

0.1

3.0

0.1

4.1

0.1

5.0

0.2

Central &
Eastern Europe

3.0%

4.8

0.1

-3.5

-0.1

2.0

0.1

4.0

0.1

Russia and other CIS

6.7%

7.0

0.3

-3.6

-0.2

2.0

0.1

4.6

0.4

Emerging Market and Developing Economies

51.9%

7.2

3.1

2.9

1.5

5.2

2.9

5.8

3.6

     

World

100%

4.3

 

0.0

 

3.5

 

4.2

 

 

 

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