Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
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Released: Friday, January 16, 2015
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. Also, with this benchmark revision, the base year of the composite indexes was changed to 2010 = 100 from 2004 = 100. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at:
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain increased 0.6 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.1 percent in November.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased again in November, with the order books survey making the largest positive contribution to the index. Between May and November 2014, the leading economic index advanced 1.4 percent (about a 2.8 percent annual rate), slightly above its 1.2 percent (about a 2.4 percent annual rate) growth over the prior six months. The strengths among the leading indicators have remained slightly more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, edged up. Over the six-month period ending November 2014, the coincident economic index grew 0.7 percent (about a 1.5 percent annual rate), down from its 1.6 percent increase (about a 3.3 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. The strengths among the coincident components have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded 2.0 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter of 2014, the same rate of growth as in the second quarter.
- In November, the LEI expanded at its fastest pace in six months, and its six-month growth rate has improved slightly compared to six months ago. Meanwhile, the CEI continued to increase moderately, but its six-month growth rate is less than half the rate of six months ago. Despite slower growth in the coincident index, the recent behavior of the leading index suggests that the current economic expansion should continue in the near term.
Five of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in November. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—were the order books survey, job vacancies, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the Spanish equity price index, and the long-term government bond yield (inverted). Only the capital equipment component of industrial production declined in November.
With the increase of 0.6 percent in November, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 101.4 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in October and remained unchanged in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 1.4 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Four out of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in November. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were final household consumption*, real imports*, employment*, and industrial production excluding construction. Retail sales survey remained unchanged in November.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in November, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 94.4 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in both October and September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 0.7 percent, and four of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 80.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) January 13, 2015. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports.
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