Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Friday, May 22, 2015
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain increased 0.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) also increased 0.3 percent in March.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain continued to advance in March. Large positive contributions from the long-term government bond yield (inverted), job vacancies and the order books survey more than offset the large negative contribution from the Spanish contribution to Euro M2. In the six months ending March 2015, the leading economic index grew 2.4 percent (about a 4.8 percent annual rate), up from its growth of 1.1 percent (about a 2.2 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have become very widespread with all components advancing over the past six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in March. The coincident economic index advanced 1.3 percent (about a 2.6 percent annual rate) between September 2014 and March 2015, the same rate as over the previous six months. The strengths among the coincident components have remained very widespread. Meanwhile, real GDP increased about 3.6 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of this year, according to the flash estimate by Instituto Nacional de Estadística, up from 2.7 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2014.
- The LEI has been trending upward since last fall, with widespread strengths among its components. As a result, its six-month change has improved considerably over this time span. Meanwhile, the CEI continues to increase at a moderate pace, and its six-month growth rate remains steady. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the current pace of economic growth should continue in the near term, and there may even be some upside potential.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in March. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—were the long-term government bond yield (inverted), job vacancies, the order books survey, and the Spanish equity price index. The negative contributors —in order from the larger negative contributor to the smaller—were the Spanish contribution to Euro M2 and the capital equipment component of industrial production.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in March, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 103.1 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in February and increased 0.3 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the index increased 2.4 percent, and all six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in March. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—were industrial production excluding construction, employment*, final household consumption*, the retail sales survey, and real imports*.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in March, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 95.4 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in February and remained unchanged in January. During the six-month span through March, the index increased 1.3 percent, and all five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) May 11, 2015. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports.
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