Global Business Cycle Indicators

Spain

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Released: Wednesday, June 12, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain increased 0.7 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.1 percent in April.

• The Conference Board LEI for Spain rose in April, as positive contributions from job placings, the inverted long-term government bond yield, and stock prices more than offset negative contributions from the Spanish contribution to Euro M2 and the order books survey. During the past six months, the leading index increased by 1.8 percent (about a 3.7 percent annual rate), faster than its 0.4 percent increase (about a 0.8 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.  
• The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, decreased again in April. The coincident economic index declined by 1.8 percent (about a -3.5 percent annual rate) between October 2012 and April 2013, the same rate as during the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have remained more widespread than strengths. Meanwhile, GDP declined by 2.1 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter, continuing its extended contraction which began in the middle of 2011.
• The LEI for Spain increased for the second time this year, though its six-month growth rate has slowed. Meanwhile, the CEI for Spain has been on a downward trend for almost two years, however the pace of its decline has slowed since the beginning of 2013.  Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the current contraction in the economy is likely to continue, though its pace may ease in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in April.  The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are job placings, the inverted long-term government bond yield, the Spanish equity price index, and the capital equipment component of industrial production. The negative contributors — in order from the larger negative contributor to the smaller — are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2 and the order books survey.    

With the increase of 0.7 percent in April, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 105.0 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index declined 0.3 percent in March and declined 0.4 percent in February.  During the six-month span through April, the index increased 1.8 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.     Two of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in April. The positive contributors — starting from the larger positive contributor — are the retail sales survey and real imports*.  Employment* and industrial production excluding construction declined in April.

With the decline of 0.1 percent in April, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 94.0 (2004=100).   Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in both March and February.  During the six-month span through April, the index decreased 1.8 percent, and only one of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 20.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) June 10, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment, and real imports. 

Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:

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