Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Friday, November 15, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain increased 0.5 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.3 percent in September.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased for a sixth consecutive month in September, with stock prices making the largest positive contribution. Between March and September, the leading index increased 2.5 percent (about a 5.0 percent annual rate), slightly above its 2.2 percent increase (about a 4.4 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, declined again in September. The coincident economic index decreased 1.1 percent (about a -2.1 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending in September 2013, an improvement from its decline of 2.3 percent (about a -4.5 percent annual rate) in the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have become more widespread than the weaknesses in the last six months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased 0.4 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter, according to the flash estimate by Instituto Nacional de Estadística, after contracting by 0.4 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter.
- The LEI for Spain has been trending upward during the past twelve months, and as a result its six-month growth rate has improved. Meanwhile, the CEI for Spain has been on a downward trend for more than two years, but its six-month growth rate has become less negative than earlier this year. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the current contraction in the economy should continue to ease and modest economic growth is possible going into 2014.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in September. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish equity price index, job vacancies, the long-term government bond yield (inverted), and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2. The negative contributors are order books survey and the capital equipment component of industrial production.
With the increase of 0.5 percent in September, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 106.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in August and 0.5 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 2.5 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in September. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are industrial production excluding construction, final household consumption*, and real imports*. The retail sales survey and employment* declined in September.
With the decrease of 0.3 percent in September, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 92.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in August and 0.2 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index decreased 1.1 percent, and four of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 80.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) November 13, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports.
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