Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Wednesday, February 11, 2015
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain increased 0.1 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.1 percent in December.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased slightly in December. Large positive contributions from the order books survey and the long-term government bond yield (inverted) offset negative contributions from the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, and the Spanish equity price index. Between June and December 2014, the leading economic index advanced 1.0 percent (about a 2.0 percent annual rate), slower than its growth of 1.9 percent (about a 3.9 percent annual rate) over the prior six months. The strengths among the leading indicators have remained slightly more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, edged up in December. In the second half of 2014, the coincident economic index grew 0.9 percent (about a 1.7 percent annual rate), down from its 1.6 percent increase (about a 3.3 percent annual rate) compared to the first half of last year. The strengths among the coincident components have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased about 2.8 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2014, according to the flash estimate by Instituto Nacional de Estadística, after growing 2.0 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter.
- The LEI increased for the third consecutive month in December. However, its six-month growth rate has slowed considerably from six months ago. Meanwhile, the CEI continued to increase moderately, but its six-month growth rate has also slowed. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity will likely continue to advance in the near term, but the pace may not pick up much.
LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in December. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the order books survey, the long-term government bond yield (inverted), and job vacancies. The negative contributors—in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—are the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2 and the Spanish equity price index.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in December, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 101.5 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in November and increased 0.2 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index increased 1.0 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Four of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in December. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, the retail sales survey, employment*, and real imports*. Industrial production excluding construction declined in December.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in December, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 94.4 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in both November and October. During the six-month span through December, the index increased 0.9 percent, and four of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 80.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) February 9, 2015. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports.
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