Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Friday, February 14, 2014
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain declined 0.4 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.2 percent in December.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain declined in December, with the large negative contribution from Spanish contribution to Euro M2 more than offsetting the large positive contribution from job vacancies. However, between June and December, the leading index increased 1.2 percent (about a 2.3 percent annual rate), slightly slower than its increase of 1.4 percent (about a 2.7 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained slightly more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, declined slightly in December. In the six-month period ending in December 2013, the index decreased by 0.2 percent (about a -0.4 percent annual rate), a reversal from its increase of 0.5 percent (about a 1.1 percent annual rate) in the previous six months. The strengths among the components have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in the last six months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased 1.2 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter, according to the flash estimate by Instituto Nacional de Estadística, after advancing at 0.5 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter of 2013.
- Despite the small decline in December, the LEI for Spain has been essentially increasing throughout 2013. However, its six-month growth rate has slowed recently and the strengths among its components have become slightly less widespread. Meanwhile, the CEI for Spain was relatively flat in the past year, but its six-month growth rate has become slightly negative in recent months. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economic recovery should continue in the near term, but at a modest pace.
LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in December. The positive contributors — in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller — are job vacancies and the Spanish equity price index. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the capital equipment component of industrial production, the order books survey, and the long-term government bond yield (inverted).
With the decrease of 0.4 percent in December, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 105.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in both November and October. During the six-month span through December, the index increased 1.2 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain, only final house consumption* increased in December. The retail sales survey, employment*, and industrial production excluding construction declined.
With the decrease of 0.2 percent in December, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 93.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in November and increased 0.2 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index decreased 0.2 percent, and three of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 60.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) February 12, 2014. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports.
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