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Released: Friday, November 22, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.1 percent in September.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany continued to increase through September, as the yield spread and stock prices made the largest positive contributions. In the six-month period ending September, the leading economic index increased 2.4 percent (about a 4.8 percent annual rate), slightly above its 2.3 percent growth (about a 4.7 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have been very widespread, with all seven components advancing during the past six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, decreased slightly in September. Between March and September 2013, the coincident economic index increased by 0.6 percent (about a 1.1 percent annual rate), after remaining unchanged during the previous six months. During this same period, the strengths among the coincident indicators have become more widespread than the weaknesses. Meanwhile, real GDP rose by 1.3 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter, after increasing 2.9 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter.
- The upward trend in the LEI for Germany has slowed in recent months, but the strengths among its components remained widespread. Despite the slight decline of the CEI in September, it has improved over the past six months after being stagnant in the previous six months. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economy will continue expanding in the near term and growth may moderately pick up in 2014.
LEADING INDICATORS. Six of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in September. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were the yield spread, stock prices, new orders in investment goods industries, inventory change*, gross enterprises and properties income*, and new residential construction orders*. Consumer confidence declined.
With the 0.2 percent increase in September, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 107.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in August and 0.6 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 2.4 percent, with all seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany, only manufacturing sales increased in September. Industrial production and retail trade declined, while employed persons remained unchanged.
With the 0.1 percent decrease in September, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 107.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in August and decreased 0.2 percent in July. During the six-month period through September, the index increased 0.6 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 87.5 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for Germany reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET November 20, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board LEI for Germany that are based on our estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income.
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