Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
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Released: Monday, December 15, 2014
Next month's release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. Also, with this benchmark revision, the base year of the composite indexes will be changed to 2010 = 100 from 2004 = 100. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany declined 0.5 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in October.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany declined in October with the stock price index and new orders of investment goods industries contributing negatively. In the six-month period ending in October 2014, the leading economic index declined 2.4 percent (about a −4.7 percent annual rate), a reversal from its increase of 2.0 percent (about a 3.9 percent annual rate) in the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have become much more widespread than the strengths in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly. The coincident economic index increased 0.2 percent between April and October 2014 (about a 0.4 percent annual rate), after advancing 0.8 percent (about a 1.7 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. The strengths among the coincident indicators have become less widespread and are now balanced with the weaknesses. Meanwhile, real GDP grew 0.3 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter of 2014, after contracting by the same amount in the second quarter.
- The LEI has been on a downward trend since March, and as a result, its six-month growth rate has fallen into negative territory. However, in the past two months the strengths among the leading indicators have become more widespread than the weaknesses. Meanwhile, the CEI has only improved marginally over the past six months. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should continue at its current moderate pace into early 2015, but downside risks still exist.
LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in October. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—were the yield spread, inventory change*, and consumer confidence. Negative contributors—in order from larger to smaller—were stock prices and new orders in investment goods industries. Gross enterprises and properties income* along with new residential construction orders remained unchanged in October.
With the 0.5 percent decrease in October, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 107.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in September and declined 1.3 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index decreased 2.4 percent, with one of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 14.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in October. The positive contributors were retail trade, employed persons and industrial production. Only manufacturing sales declined in October.
With the 0.2 percent increase in October, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 108.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in September and decreased 0.3 percent in August. During the six-month period through October, the index increased 0.2 percent, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET December 12, 2014. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board LEI for Germany that are based on our estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income.
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