Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Latest Press Release
Please download related PDFs on the upper right corner of this page.
Released: Wednesday, January 21, 2015
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. Also, with this benchmark revision, the base year of the composite indexes was changed to 2010 = 100 from 2004 = 100. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at:
www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at:
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.4 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in November.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany advanced in November, with the stock price index, new residential construction and the yield spread making large positive contributions. In the six-month period ending in November 2014, the leading economic index declined 1.6 percent (about a −3.1 percent annual rate), a reversal from its increase of 1.5 percent (about a 3.0 percent annual rate) in the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators remain more widespread than the strengths in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly. The coincident economic index increased 0.5 percent between May and November 2014 (about a 1.0 percent annual rate), slightly below its increase of 0.6 percent (about a 1.2 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. But the strengths among the coincident indicators have become more widespread than the weaknesses recently. Meanwhile, real GDP grew 0.3 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter of 2014, after contracting by the same amount in the second quarter.
- The LEI has improved moderately over the past three months, after declining sharply from June through August. However, its six-month growth rate remains negative. Meanwhile, the CEI has improved marginally over the past six months with strengths widespread among its components. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economy should continue to improve at a moderate pace in the near-term, but downside risks still remain.
LEADING INDICATORS. Six of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in November. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— were the stock prices, new residential construction orders*, the yield spread, new orders in investment goods industries, inventory change*, and gross enterprises and properties income*. The only negative contributor was consumer confidence.
With the 0.4 percent increase in November, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 106.2 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.1 percent in October and increased 0.2 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index decreased −1.6 percent, with three of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 42.9 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in November. The positive contributors were manufacturing sales, retail trade and employed persons. Only industrial production declined in November.
With the 0.2 percent increase in November, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 104.9 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in October and increased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month period through November, the index increased 0.5 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET January 16, 2015. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board LEI for Germany that are based on our estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income.
ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:
Indicator Program: email@example.com
1 212 339 0232
1 212 339 0257
All material on Our Sites are protected by United States and international copyright laws. You must abide by all copyright notices and restrictions contained in Our Sites.
You may not reproduce, distribute (in any form including over any local area or other network or service), display, perform, create derivative works of, sell, license, extract for use in a database, or otherwise use any materials (including computer programs and other code) on Our Sites ("Site Material"), except that you may download Site Material in the form of one machine readable copy that you will use only for personal, noncommercial purposes, and only if you do not alter Site Material or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice displayed on the Site Material. If you are a subscriber to any of the services offered on Our Sites, you may be permitted to use Site Material, according to the terms of your subscription agreement.
"THE CONFERENCE BOARD," the TORCH LOGO, "THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX", "THE CONFERENCE BOARD COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDEX", and "THE CONFERENCE BOARD LAGGING ECONOMIC INDEX", and other logos, indicia and trademarks featured on Our Sites are trademarks owned by The Conference Board, Inc. in the United States and other countries ("Our Trademarks"). You may not use Our Trademarks in connection with any product or service that does not belong to us nor in any manner that is likely to cause confusion among users about whether we are the source, sponsor, or endorser of the product or service, nor in any manner that disparages or discredits us.
Violators of these rights will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Nothing herein shall restrict the use of the information by news journalists using the information in a legitimate news publication or periodical.