Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2006|
Latest Press Release
Please download related PDFs on the upper right corner of this page.
Released: Friday, July 18, 2014
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France declined 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.1 percent in May.
- The Conference Board LEI for France decreased slightly in May. Negative contributions from production expectations and industrial new orders more than offset large positive contributions from the yield spread and building permits. Between November 2013 and May 2014, the leading economic index advanced 0.9 percent (about a 1.9 percent annual rate), down from its increase of 1.4 percent (about a 2.8 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained slightly more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for France, a measure of current economic activity, edged down in May. During the six-month period ending in May, the coincident economic index decreased 0.2 percent (about a -0.4 percent annual rate), a reversal from its increase of 0.2 percent (about a 0.4 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. The weaknesses among the coincident indicators have become more widespread than the strengths in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased 0.2 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of 2014, slower than the 0.7 percent (annual rate) increase in the fourth quarter of 2013.
- The upward trend in the LEI has moderated, and its six-month growth rate has slowed over the last six months. Meanwhile, despite month-to-month volatility, the CEI has been relatively flat since October 2012, and its six-month growth rate has turned slightly negative for the first time in seven months. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the growth in economic activity is unlikely to pick up in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the seven components of the leading economic index increased in May. The positive contributors to the index — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were the yield spread, building permits (residential), the new unemployment claims (inverted), and the stock price index. Production expectations and industrial new orders declined, while the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing* remained unchanged in May.
With the decrease of 0.2 percent in May, the leading economic index now stands at 118.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in April and increased 0.4 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 0.9 percent, and four of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 64.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Among the CEI’s four components, only wage and salaries* increased in May. Industrial production and employment* declined in May, while personal consumption of manufactured goods remained unchanged.
With the decrease of 0.1 percent in May, the coincident economic index now stands at 103.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in April and decreased 0.1 percent in March. During the six-month period through May, the index decreased 0.2 percent, with one of the four series making a positive contribution (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).
* See notes under data availability.
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for France reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on July 15, 2014. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*The series in The Conference Board LEI for France that is based on our estimates is the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing and (inverted) new unemployment claims. Series in The Conference Board CEI for France that are based on our estimates are number of employees and wage and salaries.
ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:
Indicator Program: email@example.com
+ 32 2 679 5054
Said Rabana :
+32 2 679 5050
All material on Our Sites are protected by United States and international copyright laws. You must abide by all copyright notices and restrictions contained in Our Sites.
You may not reproduce, distribute (in any form including over any local area or other network or service), display, perform, create derivative works of, sell, license, extract for use in a database, or otherwise use any materials (including computer programs and other code) on Our Sites ("Site Material"), except that you may download Site Material in the form of one machine readable copy that you will use only for personal, noncommercial purposes, and only if you do not alter Site Material or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice displayed on the Site Material. If you are a subscriber to any of the services offered on Our Sites, you may be permitted to use Site Material, according to the terms of your subscription agreement.
"THE CONFERENCE BOARD," the TORCH LOGO, "THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX", "THE CONFERENCE BOARD COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDEX", and "THE CONFERENCE BOARD LAGGING ECONOMIC INDEX", and other logos, indicia and trademarks featured on Our Sites are trademarks owned by The Conference Board, Inc. in the United States and other countries ("Our Trademarks"). You may not use Our Trademarks in connection with any product or service that does not belong to us nor in any manner that is likely to cause confusion among users about whether we are the source, sponsor, or endorser of the product or service, nor in any manner that disparages or discredits us.
Violators of these rights will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Nothing herein shall restrict the use of the information by news journalists using the information in a legitimate news publication or periodical.