Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2006|
Latest Press Release
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Released: Tuesday, January 27, 2015
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. Also, with this benchmark revision, the base year of the composite indexes was changed to 2010 = 100 from 2004 = 100. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at:
www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at:
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France remained unchanged and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) also remained unchanged in November.
- The Conference Board LEI for France was unchanged in November. Between May and November 2014, the leading economic index increased 0.9 percent (about a 1.8 percent annual rate), up from 0.5 percent (about a 0.9 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have become more widespread than the weaknesses over the past six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for France, a measure of current economic activity, was also unchanged. During the six-month period ending in November 2014, the coincident economic index declined 0.2 percent (about a −0.4 percent annual rate), after declining 0.1 percent (about a −0.2 percent annual rate) in the previous six months. However, the strengths among the leading indicators have become much more widespread than the weaknesses in the past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew 1.0 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter of 2014, after contracting 0.4 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter.
- Despite no change in November, the LEI has been trending moderately upward, with gains in its six-month growth rate compared to the first half of 2014. Meanwhile, the CEI has remained relatively unchanged for the past two years, and its six-month growth rate has become slightly negative in recent months. The improved growth in the leading economic index and more widespread strengths among its components suggest that economic activity will likely continue expanding at a modest pace in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for France increased in November. The positive contributors to the index— in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— were the yield spread, industrial new orders, the stock price index, production expectations, and the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing*. The negative contributors to the index— beginning with the larger negative contributor— were building permits (residential) and new unemployment claims (inverted).
After no change in November, the leading economic index now stands at 110.0 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in October and increased 0.2 percent in September. Over the six-month span through November, the index increased 0.9 percent, and five of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for France increased in November. The positive contributors to the index were personal consumption of manufactured goods and wage and salaries*. Employment* and industrial production declined in November.
After remaining unchanged in November, the coincident economic index now stands at 99.8 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in both October and September. During the six-month period through November, the index decreased 0.2 percent, with three of the four series making a positive contribution (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for France reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on January 24, 2015. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*The series in The Conference Board LEI for France that is based on our estimates is the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing and (inverted) new unemployment claims. Series in The Conference Board CEI for France that are based on our estimates are number of employees, personal consumption of manufactured goods and wage and salaries.
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