Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2006|
Latest Press Release
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Released: Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Next month's release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. Also, with this benchmark revision, the base year of the composite indexes will be changed to 2010 = 100 from 2004 = 100. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at:
www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at email@example.com.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France increased 0.1 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) remained unchanged in October.
- The Conference Board LEI for France edged up in October, with production expectations, new unemployment claims and the yield spread making the largest positive contributions. Between April and October 2014, the leading economic index increased 0.4 percent (about a 0.8 percent annual rate), down from its growth of 0.9 percent (about a 1.7 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have become more widespread than the strengths in the past six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for France, a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged. During the six-month period ending in October 2014, the coincident economic index declined 0.1 percent (about a −0.2 percent annual rate), a reversal from increasing 0.3 percent (about a 0.6 percent annual rate) in the previous six months. But the strengths and weaknesses among the coincident indicators remain balanced. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded by 1.1 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter, after contracting by 0.4 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter.
- The LEI increased two months in a row. However, its six-month growth rate, while still positive, has slowed considerably compared to earlier this year. Meanwhile, the CEI has been relatively unchanged for the past two years, and its six-month growth rate remains flat in recent months. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity will likely continue expanding at a moderate pace into early 2015.
LEADING INDICATORS.Four of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for France increased in October. The positive contributors to the index—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are production expectations, new unemployment claims (inverted), the yield spread, and industrial new orders. The negative contributors to the index—beginning with the largest negative contributor—are the stock price index, building permits (residential), and the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing*.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in October, the leading economic index now stands at 118.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in September and remained unchanged in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 0.4 percent, and two of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 28.6 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for France increased in October. The positive contributors to the index were wage and salaries* and personal consumption of manufactured goods. Industrial production and employment* declined in October.
After no change in October, the coincident economic index now stands at 103.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in September and was unchanged in August. During the six-month period through October, the index decreased 0.1 percent, with two of the four series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for France reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on December 15, 2014. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*The series in The Conference Board LEI for France that is based on our estimates is the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing and (inverted) new unemployment claims. Series in The Conference Board CEI for France that are based on our estimates are number of employees, personal consumption of manufactured goods and wage and salaries.
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