Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Wednesday, February 12, 2014
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. decreased 0.1 percent in December, after increasing 0.5 percent in November and 0.4 percent in October. Four of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index now stands at 108.2 (2004=100).
“After five months of increases, the LEI decreased slightly in December. A substantial decline in the Volume of Expected Output, coupled with softening consumer confidence and lower stock prices, was behind the decline in December, but these were offset by the interest rate spread and order book volume,” said Bert Colijn, Economist at The Conference Board. “Taken together, the U.K. LEI suggests a moderate pace of economic recovery over the next few months. Also, concerns about emerging markets performance are likely to dampen the outlook for businesses and investors. ”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.3 percent in December, after increasing 0.1 percent in both November and October. The index now stands at 105.9 (2004 = 100).
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:
Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)
Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and eleven other countries, including Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:
For more information: www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
For full press release:
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