Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Monday, August 11, 2014
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.6 percent in June, after increasing 0.5 percent in both May and April. Six of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index now stands at 111.7 (2004=100).
“The Leading Economic Index for the U.K. continues to improve, suggesting further economic growth in the coming months,” says Bert Colijn, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “June’s increase in order book volume and expected output suggest the UK economy is not likely to slow down amid concerns about tensions in Eastern Europe and deflation in the Euro Area. This domestic strength should keep the British economy growing at a faster pace than its continental neighbors.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in June, after increasing 0.1 percent in May and 0.4 percent in April. The index now stands at 107.2 (2004 = 100).
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:
Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)
Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and eleven other countries, including Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.
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About The Conference Board
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