Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Wednesday, August 20, 2014
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for India declined 0.2 percent in July to 182.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in June and a 1.3 percent increase in May. Four of the eight components contributed positively to the index in July.
“Although the Leading Economic Index for India declined slightly in July, after four consecutive monthly gains, it is still consistent with an improved economic outlook for the second half of the year,” said Jing Sima, Economist at The Conference Board. “A softer reading in the service sector PMI caused a small decline in the LEI in July. However, the exports and financial indicators remain strong.”
Ataman Ozyildirim, Director for Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board, added: “Broad-based strength among the leading indicators throughout the last six months point to improving economic conditions for India in the second half. However, July’s slight decline in the LEI highlights the challenges lying ahead where a moderation in services and manufacturing of investment goods offsets a brighter outlook from merchandise exports, stock prices, and bank credit to commercial sector.”
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India include:
Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)
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