Global Business Cycle Indicators

Brazil

Press Releases

Latest
Archive

Data

If you would like to obtain the Brazil LEI database,
please contact indicators@conference-board.org

Latest Press Release

Please download related PDFs on the upper right corner of this page.

Released: Monday, August 18, 2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), increased 0.8 percent in July. The index now stands at 120.3 (2004 = 100), following a 1.7 percent decline in June and a 1.7 percent decline in May. Five of the eight components contributed positively to the index in July.

Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE says, “The July gains in both the LEI and CEI are noteworthy given six months of consecutive declines, however it’s still too early to suggest a pickup in economic activity. July’s improvement was accompanied by decelerating prices which in turn helped improve expectations concerning future monetary policy, and consumers and service sector expectations also improved.”

Jing Sima, Economist at The Conference Board adds, “July’s increase in the LEI for Brazil was mainly driven by improvements in exports, the service sector, and stock prices. Nevertheless, domestic demand remains sluggish and manufacturing indicators have been declining persistently. Despite July’s improvement, the growth in the LEI continues to suggest that the Brazilian economy is unlikely to gain much traction in the coming months.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.6 percent in July at 127.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent decline in June and a 0.5 percent decline in May. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in July.

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI was launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include:

Swap Rate, 1 year (Source: Central Bank of Brazil)
Stock Price Bovespa Index (Source: BOVESPA – Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo/ São Paulo Stock Exchange)
Manufacturing Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Services Sector Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Consumer Expectations Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods Index (Source: IBGE – Instituto Brasilieiro de Geografia e Estatística/ Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)
Terms of Trade Index (Source: FUNCEX – Fundação Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
Exports Volume Index (Source: FUNCEX – Fundação Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)

https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=12

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:
www.conference-board.org/data/

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States of America.
www.conferenceboard.org

ABOUT FGV/IBRE

The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasilieiro de Economia—IBRE) at Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) was founded in 1951 to research, analyse, produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics and applied studies. Its purpose is to inform and help improve public policies and private activities in the Brazilian economy. IBRE is a leading institute in calculating the Brazilian GDP and producing price indices including the General Price Index (IGP) which served as Brazil´s official inflation index for many years. In addition to price indices, IBRE prepares trend and business cycle indicators that are widely used by administrators and analysts.

Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:

Indicator Program: indicators@conference-board.org

Media Contacts:

Andrew Tank:
+ (32) 2 679 50 52
andrew.tank@conference-board.org

Juliana Rocha:
+55 21 3799 6913
Juliana.mrocha@fgv.br

©The Conference Board 2013. All data contained in this table are protected by United States and international copyright laws. The data displayed are provided for informational purposes only and may only be accessed, reviewed, and/or used in with the permission accordance of The Conference Board consistent with a subscriber or license agreement and the Terms of Use displayed on our website at www.conference-board.org. The data and analysis contained herein may not be used, redistributed, published, or posted by any means without express written permission from The Conference Board.

COPYRIGHT TERMS OF USE

All material on Our Sites are protected by United States and international copyright laws. You must abide by all copyright notices and restrictions contained in Our Sites.

You may not reproduce, distribute (in any form including over any local area or other network or service), display, perform, create derivative works of, sell, license, extract for use in a database, or otherwise use any materials (including computer programs and other code) on Our Sites ("Site Material"), except that you may download Site Material in the form of one machine readable copy that you will use only for personal, noncommercial purposes, and only if you do not alter Site Material or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice displayed on the Site Material. If you are a subscriber to any of the services offered on Our Sites, you may be permitted to use Site Material, according to the terms of your subscription agreement.

TRADEMARKS

"THE CONFERENCE BOARD," the TORCH LOGO, "THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX", "THE CONFERENCE BOARD COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDEX", and "THE CONFERENCE BOARD LAGGING ECONOMIC INDEX", and other logos, indicia and trademarks featured on Our Sites are trademarks owned by The Conference Board, Inc. in the United States and other countries ("Our Trademarks"). You may not use Our Trademarks in connection with any product or service that does not belong to us nor in any manner that is likely to cause confusion among users about whether we are the source, sponsor, or endorser of the product or service, nor in any manner that disparages or discredits us.

Violators of these rights will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Nothing herein shall restrict the use of the information by news journalists using the information in a legitimate news publication or periodical.

Download related PDFs

Technical Notes
Underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs

Press Release
With graph and summary table

StraightTalk®

Straight Talk November 2013

StraightTalk® Global Economic Outlook 2014: Time to realize the opportunities for growth

From the Chief Economist

Economy at a turning point

The US economy appears poised to grow faster than trend over the next few quarters. Sustained job growth is bolstering confidence allowing consumers to release some long-delayed pent up demand.

Read the article
Archives

  • Human Capital
  • Back to Top