Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Next month's release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. Also, with this benchmark revision, the base year of the composite indexes will be changed to 2010 = 100 from 2004 = 100. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area increased 0.4 percent to 112.4 (2004=100) in November, following a 0.3 percent decrease in October and no change in September.
“The moderate growth of the Leading Economic Index for the Euro Area in November suggests that the economy continues on a path of slow-paced growth,” said Bert Colijn, Senior Economist for Europe at The Conference Board. “Business expectations in the service sector and stock prices bounced back after large declines in October, but volatility in confidence continues to dampen the economic outlook for the region. Even though internal demand is strengthening, investment continues to be a weak growth driver for the Euro Area.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the Euro Area, which measures current economic activity, was unchanged in November, according to preliminary estimates. The index now stands at 101.8* (2004 = 100). The CEI increased 0.1 percent in October and was unchanged in September.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area was launched in January 2009. Plotted back to 1987, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the business cycle of the bloc of countries that now constitute the Euro Area, defined by the common currency zone.
The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for twelve other individual countries, including Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the U.K. and the U.S.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area include:
Economic Sentiment Index (source: European Commission DG-ECFIN)
Index of Residential Building Permits Granted (source: Eurostat)
EURO STOXX® Index (source: STOXX Limited)
Money Supply (M2) (source: European Central Bank)
Interest Rate Spread (source: European Central Bank)
Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (source: Markit Economics)
Eurozone Service Sector Future Business Activity Expectations Index (source: Markit Economics)
To view The Conference Board calendar for 2014 indicator releases:
* Series in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real money supply and residential building permits. All series in The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area are based on The Conference Board estimates (employment, industrial production, retail trade, and manufacturing turnover).
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
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