Global Business Cycle Indicators

Spain

Press Releases

Latest
Archive

Data

Purchase Data

Benchmark Revisions - September 2007

Press Release Archive

Released: Friday, January 17, 2014

***********************************************************

This month's release incorporated annual benchmark revisions to the composite indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit our website at www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact indicators@conference-board.org.

***********************************************************

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain increased 0.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.1 percent in November.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain continued to rise in November, with the order books survey making the largest positive contribution. Between May and November, the leading index increased 1.5 percent (about a 3.1 percent annual rate), slower than its increase of 2.0 percent (about 4.0 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.  
  • The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, edged up in November. The index increased by 0.2 percent (about a 0.4 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending in November 2013, the same as its increase in the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the components have become more widespread than the weaknesses in the last six months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased 0.5 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter, after contracting by 0.4 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter of 2013.
  • The LEI for Spain has been trending upward since the second half of 2012, but its six-month growth rate has slowed in recent months. Meanwhile, after trending downward for two years, the CEI for Spain has been relatively flat throughout 2013, and its six-month growth rate remains slightly positive. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that a modest economic recovery should continue into the first half of 2014.

LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in November.  The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the order books survey, the long-term government bond yield(inverted), job vacancies, and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2. The Spanish equity price index was the only negative contributor, while the capital equipment component of industrial production remained unchanged.  

With the increase of 0.3 percent in November, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 105.4 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in October and increased 0.4 percent in September.  During the six-month span through November, the index increased 1.5 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Four of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in November. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the retail sales survey, final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports*.  Employment* declined in November.

With the increase of 0.1 percent in November, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 93.3 (2004=100).   Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in October and decreased 0.1 percent in September.  During the six-month span through November, the index increased 0.2 percent, and four of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 80.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY.   The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) January 15, 2014. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

Global Indicators

StraightTalk®

Straight Talk November 2013

StraightTalk® Global Economic Outlook 2014: Time to realize the opportunities for growth

From the Chief Economist

U.S. growth continues at moderate pace with momentum beginning to lose some steam

GDP is projected to grow by 2.0 percent in 2014 with the second half of this year revised lower from an average of a 2.8 percent pace to about 2.5 percent pace.

Read the article
Archives

  • Human Capital
  • Back to Top