Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Next month's release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at
www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain increased 0.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) remained unchanged in October.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain continued to increase in October, with stock prices making the largest positive contribution. Between April and October, the leading index increased 1.9 percent (about a 3.8 percent annual rate), almost the same as its increase during previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in October. The CEI was revised upward between May and September, after third quarter employment and final household consumption data became available. The index increased 0.1 percent (about a 0.2 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending in October 2013, a reversal from its decline of 2.1 percent (about a -4.1percent annual rate) in the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have become slightly more widespread than the weaknesses in the last six months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased 0.5 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter, after contracting by 0.4 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter.
- The LEI for Spain has been trending upward since the second half of 2012, and its six-month growth rate remains positive. Meanwhile, the CEI for Spain has been relatively unchanged since April, after trending downward for two years. As a result, its six-month growth rate is in positive territory for the first time since March 2011. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that slow economic growth should continue into 2014.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in October. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were the Spanish equity price index, the long-term government bond yield (inverted), job vacancies, and the capital equipment component of industrial production. The Spanish contribution to Euro M2 declined, while the order books survey remained unchanged.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in October, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 107.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in September and increased 0.2 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 1.9 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in October. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were final household consumption*, retail sales survey, and real imports*. Employment* and industrial production excluding construction declined in October.
After remaining unchanged in October, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 93.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in September and increased 0.1 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 0.1 percent, and three of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 60.0 percent).<>p&
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) December 13, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.