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Benchmark Revisions - September 2007

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Released: Friday, September 13, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain increased 0.5 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.1 percent in July.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased for a fourth consecutive month in July, as stock prices, the order books survey, and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2 made the largest positive contributions. Between January and July, the leading index increased 1.1 percent (about a 2.3 percent annual rate), down from 3.0 percent increase (about a 6.2 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. However, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.  
  • The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, declined slightly in July. The coincident economic index decreased 1.3 percent (about a -2.5 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending in July 2013, an improvement from its decline of 2.5 percent (about a -4.9 percent annual rate) in the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have become more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP declined by 0.4 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter, after falling by 1.5 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter.
  • The LEI for Spain has been rising for much of the past year, though its six-month growth rate slowed recently. Meanwhile, the CEI for Spain has been trending downward for more than two years; however, its six-month growth rate has improved since the beginning of 2013 (but remains negative). Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the current contraction in the economy will continue to ease in the near term, and could potentially end later this year.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in July. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were the Spanish equity price index, the order books survey, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, and the inverted long-term government bond yield. The negative contributors — starting from the larger negative contributor — are job vacancies and the capital equipment component of industrial production.    

With the increase of 0.5 percent in July, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 106.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in June and increased 0.6 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 1.1 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
      

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Three of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in July. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were the retail sales survey, real imports*, and final household consumption*. Employment* and industrial production excluding construction declined in July.

With the decrease of 0.1 percent in July, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 93.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in June and was unchanged in May. During the six-month span through July, the index decreased 1.3 percent, and three of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 60.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) September 11, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports.  

*The name of the job placings series has been changed in these technical notes to job vacancies so that it is consistent with the series name used by Haver Analytics. The data being used remains the same.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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