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Benchmark Revisions - September 2007

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Released: Tuesday, July 16, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain increased 0.5 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.1 percent in May.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain continued to increase in May, with the long-term government bond yield (inverted) and job vacancies making the largest positive contributions. During the past six months, the leading index increased by 1.8 percent (about a 3.7 percent annual rate), slightly stronger than its 1.4 percent increase (about a 2.8 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.  
  • The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in May, its first monthly gain since August 2012. The coincident economic index declined by 0.8 percent (about a -1.7 percent annual rate) between November 2012 and May 2013, an improvement from its decline of 2.4 percent (about a -4.7 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have remained more widespread than strengths. Meanwhile, real GDP declined by 2.1 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter, continuing an extended contraction that began in the middle of 2011.
  • The LEI for Spain increased for the third time in five months, though its six-month growth rate has slowed recently. Meanwhile, the CEI for Spain has been on a downward trend for almost two years, but the pace of its decline has moderated since the beginning of 2013. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the current contraction in the economy may start to ease in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in May. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the inverted long-term government bond yield, job vacancies, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and order books survey. The negative contributors — starting from the larger negative contributor — are the Spanish equity price index and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2.    

With the increase of 0.5 percent in May, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 105.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in April and declined 0.3 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 1.8 percent, with five of the six components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Four of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in May. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are retail sales survey, industrial production excluding construction, real imports*, and final household consumption*.  Employment* declined in May.

With the increase of 0.1 percent in May, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 94.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in April and decreased 0.2 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index decreased 0.8 percent, and two of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 40.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) July 12, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports.  

*The name of the job placings series has been changed in these technical notes to job vacancies so that it is consistent with the series name used by Haver Analytics. The data being used remains the same.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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