Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, March 12, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain increased 0.7 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.4 percent in January.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain continued to increase through January, with the large positive contribution from the Spanish contribution to Euro M2 more than offsetting the negative contributions from job placings and the capital equipment component of industrial production. As a result of recent gains, the six-month growth rate of the leading index picked up to 3.1 percent (about a 6.4 percent annual rate) between July 2012 and January 2013, a reversal from its contraction of 3.1 percent (about a -6.2 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, declined again in January. The recently released final household consumption and employment data contributed to the downward revision of the CEI between September 2012 and December 2012. The coincident economic index declined by 3.0 percent (about a -6.0 percent annual rate) between July 2012 and January 2013, steeper than its contraction of 1.7 percent (about a -3.4 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with all five components declining during the past six months. Meanwhile, GDP declined by 3.2 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2012, and has now been contracting for a year and a half.
- The LEI for Spain increased for the fifth consecutive month, and as a result, its six-month growth rate continues to pick up. The CEI for Spain, however, has been on a downward trend for more than a year, and its six-month growth rate has grown more negative as a result. Although economic growth is likely to remain in negative
territory, the recent relatively widespread improvement in the LEI suggests that the contraction may become shallower in the coming months.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make Tup he Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in January. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the inverted long-term government bond yield, the Spanish equity price index, and the order books survey. The negative contributors — in order from the larger negative contributor to the smaller — are job placings and the capital equipment component of industrial production.
With the increase of 0.7 percent in January, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 105.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.8 percent in December and increased 0.6 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index increased 3.1 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Only one of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in January. Retail sales survey* was the only positive contributor. Final household consumption*, employment*, and industrial production excluding construction declined in January, while real imports* remained unchanged.
With the decrease of 0.4 percent in January, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 94.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.6 percent in December and decreased 0.7 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index decreased 3.0 percent, and none of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) March 11, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment, and real imports.
Effective with the January 2013 release, the industrial production excluding consumption component in the CEI for Spain has been changed from the trend adjusted version of the series to the seasonally adjusted version after Eurostat discontinued production of the former series.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.