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Released: Friday, February 15, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain increased 1.0 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.3 percent in December.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in December, for the fourth consecutive month, as the order books survey, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, and the inverted long-term government bond yield made the largest positive contributions. As a result of recent gains, the six-month growth rate of the leading index picked up by 2.1 percent (about a 4.3 percent annual rate) between June and December 2012, a reversal from its contraction of 2.2 percent (about a -4.3 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.  
  • The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, declined slightly in December.  During the second half of 2012, the coincident economic index declined by 1.5 percent (about a -3.1 percent annual rate), almost the same rate as in the first half of last year.  Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread with all five components declining during the past six months.  Meanwhile, GDP has been contracting for more than a year, and declined at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2012 according to flash estimates from Spain’s national statistics agency.
  • The LEI for Spain has increased throughout the fourth quarter of 2012, and as a result its six-month growth rate has improved. However, the CEI for Spain has been on a downward trend since the middle of 2011.  Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the pace of contraction in the Spanish economy may slow in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Five of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in December.  The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are order books survey, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the inverted long-term government bond yield, the Spanish equity price index, and the capital equipment component of industrial production. Job placings made the only negative contribution.    

With the increase of 1.0 percent in December, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 104.7 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in November and increased 1.0 percent in October.  During the six-month span through December, the index increased 2.1 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.     None of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in December. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are retail sales, employment*, and industrial production excluding construction. Final household consumption and real imports remained unchanged.

With the decrease of 0.3 percent in December, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 95.6 (2004=100).   Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in November and remained unchanged in October.  During the six-month span through December, the index decreased 1.5 percent with all components declining (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).<>p&

DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®; (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) February 12, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment, and real imports.  

Effective with the January 2013 release, the industrial production excluding consumption component in the CEI for Spain has been changed from the trend adjusted version of the series to the seasonally adjusted version after Eurostat discontinued production of the former series.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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