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Released: Thursday, December 13, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain increased 1.0 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) remained unchanged in October.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased sharply in October with all components contributing to the improvement. The order books survey and job placings made the largest positive contributions. Spanish contribution to Euro M2 made a positive contribution for the first time since February. As a result of this month’s gain, the leading economic index increased by 0.4 percent (about a 0.8 percent annual rate) between April and October 2012, improving from its 2.8 percent decline (about a -5.6 percent annual rate) during the previous six months.  In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have become more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.  
  • The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, remained unchanged in October.  Between April and October 2012, the coincident economic index declined by 1.2 percent (about a -2.4 percent annual rate), slightly better than the contraction of 2.0 percent (about a -4.0 percent annual rate) during the previous six months.  Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have become more widespread with all five components declining during the past six months.  Meanwhile, GDP contracted at a 1.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter, its fifth consecutive quarter of contraction.
  • The LEI for Spain improved again this month, after being on a downward trend since February, and its six-month growth rate is in positive territory for the first time in more than a year.  Though the CEI for Spain remained unchanged this month, it has been on a downward trend since its most recent peak in April 2011.  Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the contraction in the Spanish economy may ease in the near term.
          

LEADING INDICATORS.  All six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain advanced in October, including — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — order books survey, job placings, the inverted long-term government bond yield, the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, and the Spanish equity price index.  

With the increase of 1.0 percent in October, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 103.1 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in September and declined 0.1 percent in August.  During the six-month span through October, the index increased 0.4 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Retail sales survey made the only positive contribution to The Conference Board CEI for Spain in October. Employment*, industrial production excluding construction, and final household consumption* declined in October.

After remaining unchanged in October, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 96.3 (2004=100).   Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.7 percent in September and increased 0.1 percent in August.  During the six-month span through October, the index decreased 1.2 percent, and none of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) December 10, 2012. Some series are estimated as noted below.

* Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment, and real imports.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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