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Released: Friday, September 14, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain declined 0.6 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.2 percent in July.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain decreased in July for the fourth time in the past five months, as the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, stock prices, and the (inverted) long-term government bond yield made the largest negative contributions. In the six-month period ending July 2012, the leading economic index declined by 3.3 percent (about a -6.5 percent annual rate), much sharper than the decrease of 1.0 percent (about -2.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have been widespread in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, decreased again in July. Between January and July 2012, the coincident economic index declined by 1.7 percent (about a -3.4 percent annual rate), the same rate of decline as during the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have been very widespread recently, with all four components declining during the past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP contracted at a 1.7 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2012, its fourth consecutive quarter of contraction.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain has been on a downward trend for more than a year, and its rate of decline has accelerated in recent months. In addition, The Conference Board CEI has fallen steadily since April 2011. The continued declines in both the leading and coincident indexes suggest that the current contraction in the Spanish economy will continue and could even worsen in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in July. The positive contributors — in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller — are job placings and the capital equipment component of industrial production. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the Spanish equity price index, the (inverted) long-term government bond yield, and order books survey.    

With the decrease of 0.6 percent in July, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 101.8 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in June and declined 0.6 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index decreased 3.3 percent, and one of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 16.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  One of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in July. The only positive contributor is real imports*. The retail sales survey, final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction, and employment* declined in July.

With the decrease of 0.2 percent in July, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 96.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in June and decreased 0.1 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index decreased 1.7 percent, and none of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) September 11, 2012. Some series are estimated as noted below.

* Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports.  

NOTE: Beginning with this release, several data series in both The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the Spain will now be provided by Haver Analytics, and not Thomson Reuters DataStream. As a result, some data series have been revised, but these changes do not affect the overall cyclical properties of the indexes.  For more information about these changes please contact indicators@conferenceboard.org.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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