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Benchmark Revisions - September 2007

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Released: Wednesday, July 11, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain declined 0.6 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) remained unchanged in May.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain decreased for a third consecutive month in May, as stock prices, Spanish contribution to Euro M2, and the long-term government bond yield (inverted) made the largest negative contributions. In the six-month period ending May 2012, the leading economic index declined by 2.3 percent (about a -4.5 percent annual rate), slightly less negative than the 2.7 percent decline (about a -5.3 percent annual rate) during the previous six months.  In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have been very widespread in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in May, but has been declining for most of the past year.  Between November 2011 and May 2012, the coincident economic index declined by 1.4 percent (about a -2.8 percent annual rate), slightly slower than the 1.7 percent decline (about a -3.3 percent annual rate) during the previous six months.  Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators are still more widespread than the strengths.  Meanwhile, real GDP contracted at a 1.3 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2012, following a contraction of 1.2 percent (annual rate) during the fourth quarter of last year.
  • Both The Conference Board LEI and The Conference Board CEI have been on downward trends for the past 12 months. In addition, during the past six months, a majority of the components have been declining in both indexes. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the current contraction in the Spanish economy is very likely to continue in the near term and could even worsen.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in May.  The positive contributors—in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller—are the order books survey and job placings. The negative contributors —in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish equity price index, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the inverted long-term government bond yield, and the capital equipment component of industrial production.    

With the decrease of 0.6 percent in May, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 102.1 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index declined 1.5 percent in April and declined 0.9 percent in March.  During the six-month span through May, the index decreased 2.3 percent, and two of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Two of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in May. The positive contributors — in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller — are the retail sales survey and final household consumption*.  Employment* and industrial production excluding construction declined in May, while real imports remained unchanged.

Ater remaining unchanged in May, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 97.7 (2004=100).   Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.5 percent in April and decreased 0.2 percent in March.  During the six-month span through May, the index decreased 1.4 percent, and two of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 40.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) July 9, 2012. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports. 

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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