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Benchmark Revisions - September 2007

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Released: Tuesday, June 12, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Spain declined 1.6 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.4 percent in April.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain decreased sharply in April, with all its components making negative contributions this month. In the six-month period ending April 2012, the leading economic index declined by 2.9 percent (about a -5.7 percent annual rate), deeper than the 1.6 percent decline (about a -3.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months.  In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have become very widespread in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, decreased again in April and it has been on a downtrend for the past 12 months.  Between October 2011 and April 2012, the coincident economic index declined by 1.8 percent (about a -3.6 percent annual rate), faster than the 1.4 percent decline (about a -2.7 percent annual rate) during the previous six months.  Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators also remain very widespread.  Meanwhile, real GDP contracted at a 1.3 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2012, following a contraction of 1.2 percent annual rate during the fourth quarter of last year.
  • The Conference Board LEI and CEI for Spain both fell in April, and both indexes have been mostly declining in the past 12 months. In addition, the weaknesses among the components of both composite indexes have been very widespread. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the current contraction in the Spanish economy is likely to continue in the near term and could even worsen.

LEADING INDICATORS. All six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain fell in April.  The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are order books survey, the Spanish equity price index, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the inverted long-term government bond yield, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and job placings.   

With the decrease of 1.6 percent in April, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 102.6 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index declined 0.9 percent in March and remained unchanged in February.  During the six-month span through April, the index decreased 2.9 percent, and none of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Final household consumption* made the only positive contribution to The Conference Board CEI for Spain in April. The retail sales survey, employment*, and industrial production excluding construction declined in April, while real imports remained unchanged.

With the decrease of 0.4 percent in April, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 97.7 (2004=100).   Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in March and decreased 0.2 percent in February.  During the six-month span through April, the index decreased 1.8 percent, and none of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) June 7, 2012. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment, and real imports.  

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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Straight Talk November 2013

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