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Benchmark Revisions - September 2007

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Released: Thursday, April 12, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Spain increased 0.1 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) decreased 0.1 percent in February.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased for a third consecutive month in February.  Positive contributions from the long-term government bond yield, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, and the capital equipment component of industrial production more than offset a large negative contribution from order books survey. In the six-month period ending February 2012, the leading economic index declined by 0.7 percent (about a -1.3 percent annual rate), an improvement from the 1.8 percent decline (about a -3.7 percent annual rate) during the previous six months.  However, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have been widespread in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, declined again in February.  Between August 2011 and February 2012, the coincident economic index declined by 1.9 percent (about a -3.8 percent annual rate), steeper than the 0.4 percent decline (about a -0.8 percent annual rate) during the previous six months.  Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have continued to be very widespread, with all five components declining over the past six months.  Meanwhile, real GDP contracted at a 1.2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, following growth of 0.2 percent (annual rate) during the third quarter. 
  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain has improved over the past three months, after declining between February and November 2011. Though its six-month growth rate has improved slightly in recent months, it remains negative.  Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain has been on a downward trend for the past year, and its six-month growth also remains negative. Taken together, although the past three increases in the LEI could represent a stabilization in its downward trend, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that it is too early to tell if the current contraction in economic activity will end in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in February.  The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the inverted long-term government bond yield, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, and the capital equipment component of industrial production. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are order books surveys, job placings, and the Spanish equity price index.

With the increase of 0.1 percent in February, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 105.5 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in January and increased 0.4 percent in December.  During the six-month span through February, the index decreased 0.7 percent, and two of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.   One of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in February. The retail sales survey was the only positive contributor this month.  Industrial production excluding construction, final household consumption*, and employment* declined in February, while real imports* remained unchanged.

With the decrease of 0.1 percent in February, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 98.4 (2004=100).   Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in January and decreased 0.3 percent in December.  During the six-month span through February, the index decreased 1.9 percent, and none of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) April 11, 2012. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment, and real imports. 

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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