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Released: Friday, March 16, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Spain increased 0.5 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) decreased 0.2 percent in January.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in January following a small increase last month.  The capital equipment component of industrial production and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2 made the largest positive contributions to the index. Despite this month’s gain, in the six-month period ending January 2012, the leading economic index declined by 1.0 percent (about a -2.1 percent annual rate), a little above the 1.6 percent decline (about a -3.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months.  In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators are still widespread.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, declined for a fifth consecutive month in January.  The index was revised downward during the fourth quarter of 2011 after actual data for final household consumption became available.  Between July 2011 and January 2012, the coincident economic index declined by 1.7 percent (about a -3.4 percent annual rate), steeper than the 0.5 percent decline (about a -1.0 percent annual rate) during the previous six months.  Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have continued to be very widespread.  Meanwhile, real GDP contracted at a 1.2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, following growth of 0.2 percent (annual rate) during the third quarter. 
  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased again this month, after falling between February and November of last year. Its six-month growth rate improved this month, but remains negative.  Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain has been trending downward since April 2011, and its six-month growth also remains negative. Taken together, although the past two increases in the LEI could represent a stabilization in its downward trend, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the current contraction in economic activity will continue in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in January.  The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, order books survey, and the inverted long-term government bond yield. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are job placings and the Spanish equity price index.

With the increase of 0.5 percent in January, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 105.3 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in December and declined 1.0 percent in November.  During the six-month span through January, the index decreased 1.0 percent, and two of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in January. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are retail sales survey and real imports*.  Employment*, final household consumption*, and industrial production excluding construction declined in January.

With the decrease of 0.2 percent in January, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 98.6 (2004=100).   Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in December and decreased 0.5 percent in November.  During the six-month span through January, the index decreased 1.7 percent, and none of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) March 13, 2012. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports. 

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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