Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, February 17, 2012
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Spain increased 0.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) decreased 0.2 percent in December.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in December for the first time since January 2011. A large positive contribution from the inverted long-term government bond yield more than offset a negative contribution from the Spanish contribution to Euro M2. Despite this month’s gain, in the second half of 2011, the leading economic index declined by 2.2 percent (about a -4.4 percent annual rate), well below the 0.1 decline (about a -0.2 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have been very widespread.
- The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, declined for a fourth consecutive month in December. The index was revised downward between July and November after third and fourth quarter employment data became available. Between June and December 2011, the coincident economic index declined by 1.4 percent (about a -2.8 percent annual rate), a steeper fall than the 0.2 percent decline (about a -0.4 percent annual rate) during the first half of the year. Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have continued to be widespread. Meanwhile, real GDP contracted at a 1.2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, following growth of 0.2 percent (annual rate) during the third quarter.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased this month, after trending downward for most of 2011. Its six-month growth rate remains negative and is near its lowest level since 2009. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain has been mostly falling since April 2011, and its six-month growth rate reached its lowest level since August 2009. Taken together, although December’s increase in the LEI could be the first sign of stabilization in its downward trend, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the current contraction in economic activity should continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in December. The positive contributors — in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller — are the inverted long-term government bond yield and the Spanish equity price index. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, job placings, and order books survey. The capital equipment component of industrial production remained unchanged in December.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in December, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 104.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 1.0 percent in November and declined 0.3 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index decreased 2.2 percent, and none of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 8.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. One of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in December. Final household consumption* is the only positive contributor in the index this month. Employment*, industrial production excluding construction, retail sales survey, and real imports* declined in December.
With the decrease of 0.2 percent in December, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 99.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in November and decreased 0.2 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index decreased 1.4 percent, and one of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 20.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) February 16, 2012. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.