Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, January 13, 2012
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Spain declined 1.1 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) remained unchanged in November.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain declined in November for a sixth consecutive month, as the inverted long-term government bond yield, job placings, and stock prices made the largest negative contributions. In the six-month period ending November 2011, the leading economic index declined by 2.8 percent (about a -5.5 percent annual rate), after increasing 0.3 percent (about a 0.6 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have become very widespread, with all components declining during the past six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, remained unchanged again in November. Between May and November 2011, the coincident economic index declined by 0.3 percent (about a -0.6 percent annual rate), slightly below the 0.1 percent decline (about a -0.2 percent annual rate) between November 2010 and May 2011. Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have continued to be widespread in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP remained flat in the third quarter, following growth of 0.6 percent (annual rate) during the second quarter.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain continued to decline this month, amid widespread weaknesses among its components. As a result, its six-month growth rate is now at its lowest level since 2009. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain has remained unchanged for the past two months, and its six-month growth rate stayed slightly negative. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the current contraction in general economic activity should continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. None of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in November. The negative contributors—in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—are the inverted long-term government bond yield, job placings, the Spanish equity price index, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2. Order books survey remained unchanged in November.
With the decrease of 1.1 percent in November, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 104.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.2 percent in October and declined 0.3 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index decreased 2.8 percent, and none of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Four of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in November. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are employment*, retail sales survey, real imports*, and final household consumption*. Industrial production excluding construction declined in November.
After remaining unchanged in November, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 100.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in October and decreased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index decreased 0.3 percent, and one of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 20.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) January 11, 2012. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.