Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Next month's release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Spain declined 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) decreased 0.1 percent in October.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain declined in October for a fifth consecutive month. The Spanish contribution to Euro M2 again made the largest negative contribution to the index, more than offsetting a positive contribution from the Spanish equity price index. In the six-month period ending October 2011, the leading economic index declined by 1.8 percent (about a -3.5 percent annual rate), weaker than the decline of 0.6 percent (about a -1.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have continued to be more widespread than the strengths in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, declined in October and was revised downward between May and September as new data for household consumption became available. Between April and October 2011, the coincident economic index declined by 0.3 percent (about a -0.6 percent annual rate), a reversal from the 0.4 percent increase (about a 0.8 percent annual rate) between October 2010 and April 2011. Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have continued to be widespread in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP remained flat in the third quarter, following growth of 0.6 percent (annual rate) during the second quarter.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain continued to decline this month, its seventh decline in the past eight months amid widespread weaknesses among its components. As a result, its six-month growth rate is now near its lowest level since 2009. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain has fallen four times in the past six months, and its six-month growth rate has been negative for the past two months. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that there is substantial risk of an economic contraction in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in October. The positive contributors—in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller—are the Spanish equity price index and order books survey. The negative contributors —in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the capital equipment component of industrial production, the inverted long-term government bond yield, and job placings.
With the decrease of 0.2 percent in October, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 105.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.4 percent in September and declined 0.2 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index decreased 1.8 percent, and two of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. One of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in October. Employment was the only positive contributor this month. The retail sales survey and industrial production excluding construction declined in October, while final household consumption* and real imports remained unchanged.
With the decrease of 0.1 percent in October, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 101.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in September and increased 0.1 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index decreased 0.3 percent, and one of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 20.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) December 9, 2011. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.