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Benchmark Revisions - September 2007

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Released: Wednesday, November 16, 2011

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Spain declined 0.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) increased 0.1 percent in September.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain declined again in September, its fourth consecutive decline. The Spanish contribution to Euro M2 made the largest negative contribution this month, more than offsetting a positive contribution from order books survey.  In the six-month period ending September 2011, the leading economic index declined by 1.7 percent (about a -3.3 percent annual rate), weaker than the decline of 0.8 percent (about a -1.7 percent annual rate) during the previous six months.  In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have been more widespread than the strengths in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, increased for a second consecutive month in September.  Between March and September 2011, the coincident economic index increased 0.3 percent (about a 0.6 percent annual rate), the same rate as between September 2010 and March 2011.  Nevertheless, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have been more widespread than the strengths in recent months.  Meanwhile, real GDP remained flat according to flash estimates for the third quarter, following growth of 0.6 percent (annual rate) during the second quarter.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain continued to decline this month, its sixth decline in the past seven months amid widespread weaknesses among its components.  As a result, its six-month growth rate is now near its lowest level since 2009.  Although preliminary data indicates that The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in September, the gain was mainly due to household consumption* and employment*.  Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that although current economic activity remains in positive territory, risks to future economic growth are increasing. 

LEADING INDICATORS.  Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in September.  The positive contributors — in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller — are order books survey and the (inverted) long-term government bond yield. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the Spanish equity price index, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and job placings. 

With the decrease of 0.3 percent in September, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 105.5 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index declined 0.2 percent in August and declined 0.8 percent in July.  During the six-month span through September, the index decreased 1.7 percent, and two of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 41.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Three of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in September. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are final household consumption*, employment*, and real imports*.  The retail sales survey and industrial production excluding construction declined in September.

With the increase of 0.1 percent in September, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 101.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in August and remained unchanged in July.  During the six-month span through September, the index increased 0.3 percent, and two of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 40.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) November 14, 2011. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports. 

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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