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Benchmark Revisions - September 2007

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Released: Friday, October 14, 2011

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Spain declined 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) increased 0.2 percent in August.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain declined again in August, its third consecutive decline. Large negative contributions from stock prices and the order books survey component more than offset the positive contribution from the long-term government bond yield (inverted). In the six-month period ending August 2011, the leading economic index declined 1.9 percent (about a -3.9 percent annual rate), weaker than the decline of 0.5 percent (about a -0.9 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have been more widespread than the strengths in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, increased in August after remaining flat in July. Between February and August 2011, the coincident economic index increased 0.5 percent (about a 1.0 percent annual rate), an improvement from the decline of 0.1 percent (about a -0.2 percent annual rate) between August 2010 and February 2011. However, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have been more widespread than the strengths in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 0.6 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2011, following growth of 1.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain continued to decline this month, its fifth decline in the past six months amid widespread weaknesses among its components. As a result, its six-month growth rate is now at its lowest level since 2009. Although preliminary data indicates The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in August, with widespread strengths among its components, the gains were mainly due to household consumption* and employment*. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggests that economic activity will remain slow, and could even get weaker, in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. One of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in August.  The inverted long-term government bond yield was the only positive contributor to the index this month. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish equity price index, order books survey, the capital equipment component of industrial production, job placings, and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2. 

With the decrease of 0.2 percent in August, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 105.7 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index declined 0.8 percent in July and declined 0.3 percent in June.  During the six-month span through August, the index decreased 1.9 percent, and two of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 41.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in August. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are final household consumption*, retail sales survey, and employment*.  Industrial production excluding construction and real imports* declined in August.

With the increase of 0.2 percent in August, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 101.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in July and decreased 0.1 percent in June.  During the six-month span through August, the index increased 0.5 percent, and two of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 40.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) October 12, 2011. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports. 

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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