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Benchmark Revisions - September 2007

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Released: Tuesday, August 16, 2011

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Spain declined 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) decreased 0.1 percent in June.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain declined in June, its third decline in the past four months. Positive contributions from job placings and the capital equipment component of industrial production were more than offset by declines in the remaining components. In the six-month period ending June 2011, the leading economic index increased only 0.3 percent (about a 0.6 percent annual rate), above the decline of 0.7 percent (about a -1.5 percent annual rate) during the previous six-month period. Additionally, the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have been balanced in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, declined for the third consecutive month in June. During the first half of 2011, the coincident economic index decreased 0.2 percent (about a -0.4 percent annual rate), a slower rate of decline after falling 0.7 percent (about a -1.4 percent annual rate) between June and December 2010. In addition, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have been slightly more widespread than the strengths in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 1.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2011, after growing 0.9 percent annual rate in the final quarter of 2010.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain declined in June, amid widespread weaknesses among its components. The index has been falling gradually since the second half of 2009 while its six-month annualized growth rate has been fluctuating in a range of 0.0 to -3.0 percent since 2010. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain declined again in June; the index has been largely flat this year after dropping sharply in the middle of 2010. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggests that economic activity will likely remain weak in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in June. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are job placings and the capital equipment component of industrial production. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are order books survey, the inverted long-term government bond yield, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, and the Spanish equity price index.

With the decrease of 0.2percent in June, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 106.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in May and declined 0.2 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 0.3 percent, and three of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in June. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are final household consumption* and real imports*. Employment*, the retail sales survey, and industrial production excluding construction declined in June.

With the decrease of 0.1 percent in June, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 100.9 (2004=100).Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in May and decreased 0.1 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index decreased 0.2 percent, and two of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 40.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) August 12, 2011. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment, and real imports.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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