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Released: Thursday, June 16, 2011

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Spain declined 0.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) remained unchanged in April.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain declined again in April. A large drop in the Spanish contribution to Euro M2 more than offset the positive contributions from job placings and stock prices. The six-month change in the index now stands at -0.6 percent (about a -1.3 percent annual rate) in the period ending April 2011, down from -0.4 percent (about a -0.7 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have been widespread in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, remained unchanged in April, following a slight increase in March. Between October 2010 and April 2011, the coincident economic index increased 0.3 percent (about a 0.6 percent annual rate), a reversal from the decline of 0.7 percent (about a -1.4 percent annual rate) between April and October 2010. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been widespread during the past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 1.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2011, following an increase of 0.9 percent annual rate in the final quarter of 2010.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain continued to decline in April, amid widespread weaknesses among its components. As a result, its six-month growth rate has remained in stable but negative territory, fluctuating around a -0.5 percent growth rate in recent months. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain was unchanged this month; however, its six-month growth rate has turned modestly positive lately. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggests that the economy will likely remain weak in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in April. The positive contributors — in order from the larger positive contributor— are job placings and the Spanish equity price index. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and the inverted long-term government bond yield.  Order books survey remained unchanged in April.

With the decrease of 0.3percent in April, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 107.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.5 percent in March and increased 0.1 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index decreased 0.6 percent, and two of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in April. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the retail sales survey, real imports*, and final household consumption*. Employment* and industrial production excluding construction declined in April.

After it remained unchanged in April, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 101.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in March and remained unchanged in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 0.3 percent, and four of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 80.0 percent).

*See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY.The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) June 14, 2011. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment, and real imports.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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