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Released: Wednesday, April 13, 2011

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain increased 0.1 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.1 percent in February.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain rose slightly in February, following a sharp increase in January. Negative contributions from job placings and the capital equipment component of industrial production were more than offset by positive contributions from the remaining components. Despite increasing since December, the leading economic index declined 0.5 percent (a -0.9 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending February 2011, a reversal from the growth of 0.2 percent (a 0.4 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have been very widespread in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in February. Between August 2010 and February 2011, the coincident economic index increased by 0.2 percent (a 0.4 percent annual rate), in line with the growth of 0.3 percent (a 0.6 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained slightly more widespread than the weaknesses. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 0.9 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010, following a slight decline of 0.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter. 
  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased for the past three months, after generally declining for more than a year. However, its six-month change has become negative again amid widespread weakness among the components. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain has been essentially flat since the middle of 2009. The recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economy will likely remain weak in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in February.  The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are order books survey, the inverted long-term government bond yield, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, and the Spanish equity price index. The negative contributors — in order from the larger negative contributor— are job placings and the capital equipment component of industrial production. 

With the increase of 0.1 percent in February, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 107.8 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.9 percent in January and increased 0.1 percent in December.  During the six-month span through February, the index decreased 0.5 percent, and two of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Four of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in February. The positive contributors — in order from the larger positive contributor to the smallest — are industrial production excluding construction, final household consumption*, retail sales survey, and real imports*.  Employment* declined in February.

With the increase of 0.1 percent in February, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 101.4 (2004=100).   Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in January and increased 0.1 percent in December.  During the six-month span through February, the index increased 0.2 percent, and three of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 60.0 percent).

* See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) April 8, 2011. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports. 

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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