Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, January 14, 2011
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain declined 1.1 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.2 percent in November.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain decreased sharply in November as the Spanish equity price index, the long-term government bond yield, and the capital equipment component of industrial production all made very large negative contributions. As a result, the six-month growth rate slowed to its lowest point since June 2010 – to -1.1 percent (about a -2.2 percent annual rate), greater than the decline of 0.6 percent (about a -1.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have been very widespread, with none of the six components advancing in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, also declined in November. As a result, the six-month change in the coincident economic index continued to slow further – to -1.8 percent (about a -3.5 percent annual rate), a reversal from the growth of 1.4 percent (about a 2.8 percent annual rate) between November 2009 and May 2010. In addition, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have been widespread in recent months. At the same time, real GDP edged up at a 0.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2010, following growth of 1.1 percent annual rate in the second quarter.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain, which increased slightly during the third quarter of 2010, declined for the third consecutive month in November. As a result, its six-month growth rate is at its lowest since June 2010 while the index is now 4.4 percent below its most recent peak in February 2008. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain has been decreasing since June, and its six-month growth rate is at its lowest since August 2009. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity is likely to remain weak in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. None of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in November. The negative contributors – in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – are the Spanish equity price index, the inverted long-term government bond yield, the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, job placings, and the order books survey.
With the decrease of 1.1 percent in November, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 106.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.4 percent in October and declined 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index decreased 1.1 percent, and none of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. One of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in November. The positive contributor was the retail sales survey. Final household consumption*, employment*, and industrial production excluding construction declined in November, while real imports remained unchanged.
With the decrease of 0.2 percent in November, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 100.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in October and decreased 0.4 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index decreased 1.8 percent, and one of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 20.0 percent).
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment, and real imports.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.