Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Next month's release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Spain declined 0.4 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) decreased 0.2 percent in October.
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- The Conference Board LEI for Spain declined again in October. Large negative contributions from job placings, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and order books survey more than offset the gain in stock prices. Between April and October 2010, the leading economic index decreased 0.3 percent (a -0.5 percent annual rate), despite a slight improvement in the six-month growth rate in August and September. However, the number of components increasing over the last six months has been greater than the number decreasing.
- The Conference Board CEI for Spain also declined in October, and index levels were revised lower from June to September as third quarter data for final household consumption and employment became available. The six-month change in the coincident economic index stands at -1.2 percent (a -2.4 percent annual rate), a reversal from the 0.8 percent rate of growth (a 1.6 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have been very widespread, with all five components declining over the past six months. At the same time, real GDP edged up at a 0.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2010, following an increase of 1.1 percent annual rate in the second quarter.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain, which increased slightly during the third quarter, has resumed declining. As a result, its six-month growth rate has become slightly negative again. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, has been decreasing since June, and its six-month growth rate is at its lowest since September 2009. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity is likely to remain weak in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in October. The positive contributors – in order from the largest positive contributor – are the Spanish equity price index and the inverted long-term government bond yield. The negative contributors ndash; in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – are job placings, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and order books survey. The Spanish contribution to Euro M2 remained unchanged.
With the decrease of 0.4 percent in October, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 108.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.1 percent in September and increased 0.6 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index decreased 0.3 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. None of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in October. Final household consumption*, employment*, and industrial production excluding construction declined in October. Real imports and retail sales remained unchanged.
With the decrease of 0.2 percent in October, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 99.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.4 percent in September and decreased 0.4 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index decreased 1.2 percent, and none of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment, and real imports.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.