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Benchmark Revisions - September 2007

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Released: Wednesday, April 14, 2010

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain declined 0.5 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.1 percent in February.

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  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain decreased for the fourth time in the last five months. Apart from the inverted long-term government bond yield, all of the components made negative contributions to the index this month. Between August 2009 and February 2010, the leading economic index declined by 1.0 percent (about a -2.0 percent annual rate), a reversal from the 3.2 percent increase (about a 6.5 percent annual rate) between February and August 2009. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have become widespread in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, also declined for a fourth time in five months. Between August 2009 and February 2010, the coincident economic index decreased by 0.2 percent (about a -0.4 percent annual rate), slower than the 2.3 percent decline (about a -4.6 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have become slightly more widespread than the strengths in recent months. At the same time, real GDP contracted at a 0.6 percent annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2009, following a decline of 1.1 percent annual rate during the third quarter.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain has been falling in recent months, after rising from April to September of last year. In addition, its six-month growth rate has become negative. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI has continued to fall, but at a substantially slower pace than during the first half of 2009. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economy is likely to remain weak in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. One of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in February. The inverted long-term government bond yield was the only positive contributor in February. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish equity price index, order books survey, the capital equipment component of industrial production, job placings and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2.

With the decrease of 0.5 percent in February, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 108.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.3 percent in January and increased 0.3 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index decreased 1.0 percent, and one of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 16.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in February. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are final household consumption*, retail sales survey and real imports*. Employment* and industrial production excluding construction declined in February.

With the decrease of 0.1 percent in February, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 99.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in January and increased 0.1 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index decreased 0.2 percent, and two of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 40.0 percent).

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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