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Benchmark Revisions - September 2007

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Released: Wednesday, November 11, 2009

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for Spain increased 0.3 percent. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) decreased 0.1 percent in September.

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  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased for the fifth time in six months in September. Positive contributions from the capital equipment component of industrial production and order books survey more than offset a large negative contribution from the Spanish contribution to Euro M2. Between March and September 2009, the leading economic index increased by 3.5 percent (about a 7.1 percent annual rate), a reversal from the 4.0 percent decline (about a -7.8 percent annual rate) from September 2008 to March 2009. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, declined slightly again in September, with final household consumption* and industrial production (excluding construction) continuing to make negative contributions. Between March and September 2009, the coincident economic index decreased by 1.3 percent (about a -2.5 percent annual rate), slower than the 5.6 percent decline (about a -10.9 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Additionally, the strengths among the coincident indicators have become more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months. At the same time, real GDP contracted at a 4.2 percent annual rate during the second quarter of 2009, following a decline of 6.2 percent during the first quarter.
  • After trending downward for more than a year, The Conference Board LEI for Spain has risen for the past four months, with the six-month growth rate reaching its highest level since 1997. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain has been falling since its most recent peak in February 2008, though the pace of this decline has slowed in recent months. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite economic indexes suggests that the pace of contraction will continue to ease and that economic activity may improve in the months ahead.

LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in September. The positive contributors–in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest–are order books survey, the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish equity price index and job placings. The negative contributors–in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest–are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2 and the (inverted) long-term government bond yield.

With the increase of 0.3 percent in September, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 109.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.9 percent in August and increased 0.9 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 3.5 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in September. The positive contributors – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – are employment*, retail sales survey and real imports*. Final household consumption* and industrial production (excluding construction) declined in September.

With the decrease of 0.1 percent in September, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 101.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in August and decreased 0.1 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index decreased 1.3 percent, and three of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 60.0 percent).

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD. The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

Media Contact:
Eric Kuhn:
+33 1 77 16 53 66
eric.kuhn@conference-board.org

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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