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Benchmark Revisions - September 2007

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Released: Tuesday, August 11, 2009

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for Spain increased 0.2 percent.  The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) decreased 0.4 percent in June.

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  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased for the second time in three months in June.  Large positive contributions from order books survey and job placings more than offset a substantial negative contribution from the capital equipment component of industrial production.  The six-month decline in the leading economic index has slowed to 1.8 percent (about a -3.5 percent annual rate) in the period through June, from the 4.1 percent decline (about a -8.0 percent annual rate) at the end of the first quarter.  In addition, the strengths and weakness among the leading indicators have remained balanced in recent months. 
  • The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, decreased again in June, with industrial production (excluding construction) continuing to make the largest negative contribution to the index.  Between December 2008 and June 2009, the coincident economic index fell by 3.7 percent (about a -7.3 percent annual rate), slower than the 4.8 percent decline (about a -9.4 percent annual rate) during the previous six months.  Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with none of the components increasing during the past six months.  At the same time, real GDP contracted at a 7.4 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2009, its largest decline since 1991, following a decline of 3.8 percent for the fourth quarter of 2008.
  • After trending downward for more than a year, The Conference Board LEI for Spain has risen slightly during the second quarter of 2009 and as a result, the pace of its six-month contraction has slowed.  Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain has been falling since its most recent peak in February 2008, though the rate of its decline has also moderated over the past few months.  Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite economic indexes suggests that, while the pace of contraction may moderate slightly, the downturn in economic activity is likely to continue in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in June.  The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are order books survey, job placings, and the Spanish equity price index. The negative contributors —in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—are the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2 and the (inverted) long-term government bond yield. 

With the increase of 0.2 percent in June, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 106.0 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index declined 0.1 percent in May and increased 0.2 percent in April.  During the six-month span through June, the index decreased 1.8 percent, and three of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.   One of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in June. The retail sales survey was the only positive contributor this month.  Industrial production excluding construction, final household consumption*, and employment* declined in June, while real imports* remained unchanged.

With the decrease of 0.4 percent in June, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 101.2 (2004=100).   Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.6 percent in May and decreased 0.5 percent in April.  During the six-month span through June, the index decreased 3.7 percent, and none of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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