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Benchmark Revisions - September 2007

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Released: Thursday, January 17, 2008

The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.1 percent and the coincident index increased 0.2 percent in November.

  • In November, the leading index increased for a fifth consecutive month. The capital equipment component of industrial production and the long term government bond yield (inverted) made the largest positive contributions, more than offsetting small negative contributions from the equity price index and order book surveys. Between May and November, the leading index increased by 1.0 percent (about a 1.9 percent annual rate), but this growth rate was down from a 2.0 percent increase (about a 3.9 percent annual rate) for the period between November 2006 and May 2007. Still, the strengths among the leading indicators have been much more widespread than the weaknesses in October and November.
  • The coincident index continued to increase in November as it has done through most of 2007. Between May 2007 and November 2007, the growth rate of the coincident index slowed to 0.7 percent (about a 1.4 percent annual rate) far lower than the 3.6 percent annual rate which prevailed during the previous six months. However, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained widespread.
  • The leading index has increased at a slower pace since March of 2007 after growing rapidly throughout 2005 and 2006. At the same time, real GDP growth also slowed in the second and third quarters of 2007, falling to a 3.3 percent average annual growth rate (including a 2.9 percent annual rate for the third quarter), down from a 4.3 percent average annual rate for the previous two quarters. The behavior of the leading and coincident indexes suggest that the economy should continue growing, albeit at a slow to moderate pace in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make up the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the inverted long-term government bond yield, the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, and job placings. The negative contributors —in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish equity price index, and order books survey.

With the increase of 0.1 percent in November, the leading index now stands at 157.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in October and increased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 1.0 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Four of the five components that make up the coincident index increased in November. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are final household consumption*, employment*, real imports*, and industrial production. The retail sales survey remained unchanged.

With the increase of 0.2 percent in November, the coincident index now stands at 158.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in October and remained unchanged in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 0.7 percent, and five of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (ET) January 15, 2008. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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