Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Monday, September 17, 2007
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.4 percent and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in July.
- The leading index increased in July, offsetting the decline in June. Despite July’s gain, the growth rate of the leading index continued to slow, to 1.0 percent (a 1.9 percent annual rate) from January to July, significantly down from the 6.0 percent annualized growth rate during the second half of 2006. In addition, the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have been roughly balanced in recent months, but many components have exhibited substantial volatility during this period.
- The coincident index also increased in July, keeping it on a steadily rising trend. In addition, its strengths continued to be widespread among its components. At the same time, real GDP grew at about a 4.0 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2007 (including the second quarter's 3.8 percent annual rate), still in the range of a 3.5 to 4.5 percent average annual rate that it has been growing since the end of 2004. The leading index has slowed down in the first half of the year, with some short-term volatility during this period, and it has been essentially flat since March suggesting that economic growth is likely to continue, but perhaps at a moderate rate, in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the six components that make up the leading index increased in July. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the capital equipment component of industrial production, job placings, the inverted long-term government bond yield, and order books survey. The negative contributor was the Spanish equity price index.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in July, the leading index now stands at 156.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.3 percent in June and increased 0.5 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 1.0 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Four of the five components that make up the coincident index increased in July. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are employment*, final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports*. Retail sales survey was unchanged in July.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in July, the coincident index now stands at 158.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in June and increased 0.4 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 1.6 percent, and all five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (ET) September 14, 2007. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption, real imports, and employment. There are no series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.