Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, July 17, 2007
The Conference Board announced today that both the leading and coincident indexes for Spain increased 0.6 percent in May.
- Reversing a sharp decline in April, the leading index increased sharply in May. With May's gain, the leading index grew 2.3 percent from November to May (a 4.6 percent annual rate), down from about a 7.0 percent annualized growth rate at the end of last year. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have been somewhat more widespread than weaknesses in recent months.
- The coincident index also increased sharply in May, and all components contributed positively to this gain, but there were downward revisions in previous months as new data for final household consumption* became available. The strengths among the coincident indicators have been very widespread in recent months and the retail sales survey and final household consumption* continued to be among the largest positive contributors to the index. The coincident index increased 1.3 percent from November to May, down from about 2.0 to 2.5 percent growth at the end of 2006.
- The leading index was growing very rapidly at the end of 2006, but its six-month growth rate has gradually become more moderate since January. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 4.6 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2007, slightly below the 4.8 percent growth in the fourth quarter of 2006. Despite their somewhat more moderate growth, the recent behavior of the leading and coincident indexes so far still suggests that moderate to strong economic growth should continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make up the leading index increased in May. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the Spanish equity price index, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and job placings. The negative contributors — in order from the larger negative contributor to the smaller — are the inverted long-term government bond yield and order books survey.
With the increase of 0.6 percent in May, the leading index now stands at 152.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.7 percent in April and increased 0.9 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 2.3 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in May. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are retail sales survey, final household consumption*, real imports*, and real imports*.
With the increase of 0.6 percent in May, the coincident index now stands at 160.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.4 percent in April and increased 0.5 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 1.3 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (ET) July 13, 2007. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.