Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, January 23, 2007
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.3 percent and the coincident index increased 0.4 percent in November.
- The leading index increased again in November. With November's gain, the leading index grew 3.0 percent from May to November (a 6.2 percent annual rate), up from the 4.0 — 5.0 percent annual growth rate in the first half of 2006. The Spanish contribution to Euro M2 and the capital equipment component of industrial production made the largest positive contributions to the leading index, and the strengths among the leading indicators have become more widespread in recent months.
- The coincident index also increased in November, and the largest positive contributor continued to be final household consumption. This index of current economic activity continued to grow steadily, at about a 4.0 percent annual rate in 2006, slightly above its growth rate in 2005. At the same time, real GDP growth continued at a 3.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter, slightly above the 3.6 percent average rate in the second half of 2005. The recent behavior of the leading index suggests that moderate to strong economic growth should continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the six components that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish equity price index, job placings, and the inverted long-term government bond yield. Order books survey declined in November.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in November, the leading index now stands at 149 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in October and increased 0.8 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 3.0 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in November. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are final household consumption*, retail sales survey, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports*.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in November, the coincident index now stands at 158.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in October and increased 0.2 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 2.2 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (ET) January 22, 2007. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.