Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, December 14, 2006
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.4 percent and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in October.
- The leading index increased again in October, following September's sharp increase. With October's gain, the leading index grew 3.4 percent from April to October (a 6.9 percent annual rate), up from the 4.0 — 5.0 percent annual growth rate in the first half of 2006. Stock prices, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, and the capital equipment component of industrial production made the largest positive contributions to the leading index, and the strengths among the leading indicators have become more widespread in recent months.
- The coincident index also increased in October, following five consecutive increases. This index of current economic activity continued to grow steadily, at about a 4.0 percent annual rate in 2006, slightly above its growth rate in 2005. At the same time, real GDP growth continued at a 3.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter, slightly above the 3.6 percent average rate in the second half of 2005. The recent behavior of the leading index suggests that moderate to strong economic growth should continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish equity price index, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and job placings. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are order books survey and the inverted long-term government bond yield.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in October, the leading index now stands at 148.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in September and increased 0.2 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 3.4 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in October. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports*. The retail sales survey declined in October.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in October, the coincident index now stands at 157.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in September and increased 0.5 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 2.0 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (ET) December 12, 2006. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.