Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, November 16, 2006
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.7 percent and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in September.
- The leading index increased sharply in September, following a slight increase in the previous month. With September's gain, the leading index grew 2.9 percent from March to September (a 5.9 percent annual rate), up slightly from the 4.0 — 5.0 percent annual growth rate in recent months. The Spanish contribution to Euro M2 remained the largest positive contributor to the leading index. In addition, strengths among the leading indicators became more widespread in September.
- The coincident index also increased in September, the fifth consecutive increase. This index of current economic activity continued to grow at about a 4.0 percent annual rate in the third quarter, slightly below its growth rate in the second quarter, but slightly above its growth rate in 2005. At the same time, real GDP growth continued at a 3.8 percent annual rate in the second quarter, slightly above the 3.6 percent average rate in the second half of 2005. The recent behavior of the leading index suggests that moderate to strong economic growth should continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the Spanish equity price index, the inverted long-term government bond yield, and order books survey. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are the capital equipment component of industrial production and job placings.
With the increase of 0.7 percent in September, the leading index now stands at 147.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in August and increased 0.9 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 2.9 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in September. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports*. The retail sales survey declined in September.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in September, the coincident index now stands at 156.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in August and increased 0.3 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 1.7 percent, and three of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (ET) November 15, 2006. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.