Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Monday, October 23, 2006
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.1 percent and the coincident index increased 0.4 percent in August.
- The leading index increased slightly in August, following three consecutive large increases. With August's gain, the leading index continued to grow 2.3 percent from February to August (a 4.7 percent annual rate). In recent months, the growth rate of the leading index has been fluctuating at about a 4.0 — 5.0 percent annual rate, up from a 2.0 percent growth rate at the end of 2005. The Spanish contribution to Euro M2 was the largest positive contributor, offsetting negative contributions from the capital equipment component of industrial production, order books survey, and job placings. Strengths and weaknesses among the indicators have been somewhat more balanced in recent months.
- The coincident index also increased in August, the fourth consecutive increase. The growth rate of this index of current economic activity continues at about a 3.0 — 4.0 percent annual rate, slightly above its growth rate in 2005. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 3.8 percent annual rate in the second quarter following the same rate in the first quarter, slightly above the 3.6 percent average rate in the second half of 2005. The recent behavior of the leading index suggests that moderate to strong economic growth should continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the six components that make up the leading index increased in May. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the Spanish equity price index, and the inverted long-term government bond yield. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are job placings, order books survey, and the capital equipment component of industrial production.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in August, the leading index now stands at 146.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.9 percent in July and increased 0.5 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the index increased 2.3 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in August. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are final household consumption*, retail sales survey, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports*.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in August, the coincident index now stands at 156.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in July and increased 0.2 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the index increased 1.9 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (ET) October 19, 2006. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.