Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, August 23, 2006
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.6 percent and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in June.
- The leading index increased again in June following May's sharp increase. With June's large gain, the leading index grew 2.1 percent from December to June (about a 4.3 percent annual rate). In recent months, the leading index has been growing at about 3.5 - 4.5 percent annual rate, gradually picking up from the 2.0 percent annual rate at the end of 2005. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have continued to be more widespread than weaknesses.
- The coincident index also increased in June, following a sharp increase in May. Despite moderating slightly from the beginning of the year, this index of current economic activity has been growing at about a 4.0 percent annual rate, slightly above its growth in 2005. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 3.6 percent annual rate (according to advanced estimates) in the second quarter of 2006, slightly below the 3.7 percent average rate in the second half of 2005. The recent behavior of the leading index suggests that moderate to strong economic growth should continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make up the leading index increased in May. The positive contributors-in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest-are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, job placings, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and the Spanish equity price index. The negative contributors-in order from the largest negative contributor-were order books survey and the inverted long-term government bond yield.
With the increase of 0.6 percent in June, the leading index now stands at 145.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in May and remained unchanged in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 2.1 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in June. The positive contributors - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports*. The retail sales survey declined in June.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in June, the coincident index now stands at 155.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in May and decreased 0.2 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 2.0 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (ET) August 22, 2006. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.