Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, July 19, 2006
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.6 percent and the coincident index increased 0.5 percent in May.
- The leading index increased sharply in May after remaining unchanged in April. May's growth was driven strongly by job placings and the capital equipment component of industrial production. With May's large gain, the growth rate of the leading index has continued to pick up, to about a range of 3.5 - 4.5 percent annual rate, up from the 2.0 percent annual rate at the end of 2005. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have continued to be widespread.
- The coincident index also increased in May, following a small decrease in April. Its growth rate moderated slightly in recent months, but it remains at about a 4.0 to 5.0 percent annual rate, slightly above its growth in 2005. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2006, below the 3.7 percent average rate in the second half of 2005. The recent behavior of the leading index still suggests that moderate to strong economic growth should continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the six components that make up the leading index increased in May. The positive contributors - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are job placings, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2. The negative contributors - in order from the largest negative contributor - were the Spanish equity price index and order books survey. The inverted long-term government bond yield remained unchanged.
With the increase of 0.6 percent in May, the leading index now stands at 144.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in April and increased 0.1 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 2.3 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in May. The positive contributors - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are final household consumption*, retail sales survey, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports*.
With the increase of 0.5 percent in May, the coincident index now stands at 154.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in April and increased 0.5 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 2.0 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (ET) July 17, 2006. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.