Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, June 21, 2006
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain remained unchanged and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in April.
- The leading index remained the same in April and March's slight increase was revised to no change as a result of data revisions. Despite no growth in the last two months, the growth rate of the leading index has picked up from the 2.0 percent rate in the last quarter of 2005 and has been fluctuating in the range of 3.5 - 4.0 percent annual rate in recent months. In addition, the strength among the leading indicators has continued to be somewhat widespread.
- The coincident index rose slightly in April following strong gains in the first three months of the year. Its growth rate remained at about a 4.0 to 5.0 percent annual rate in recent months. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2006, only slightly below the 3.7 percent average rate in the previous two quarters. The recent behavior of the leading index still suggests that moderate to strong economic growth should continue in the near term.
Leading Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the leading index increased in April. The positive contributors-in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest-are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, order books survey, and the Spanish equity price index. The negative contributors include the inverted long-term government bond yield and job placings, while the capital equipment component of industrial production remained unchanged.
With the 0.0 percent change in April, the leading index now stands at 143.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in March and increased 0.1 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 1.8 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in April. The positive contributors - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are final household consumption*, real imports*, and industrial production excluding construction. The retail sales survey declined in April.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in April, the coincident index now stands at 154.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in March and increased 0.4 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 2.5 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) June 19, 2006. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.