Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, May 23, 2006
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.1 percent and the coincident index increased 0.4 percent in March.
- The leading index increased slightly again in March, the fifth consecutive gain. The capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, and the stock price index continued to be the main positive contributors to the leading index in recent months. The growth rate of the leading index has been fluctuating in the range of 3.5 - 4.0 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year. This is up from the 2.0 percent rate in the last quarter of 2005. In addition, the strength among the leading indicators has continued to be somewhat more widespread in the last several months.
- The coincident index continued to rise steadily in March and its growth rate picked up slightly to about a 4.0 to 5.0 percent annual rate in recent months. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2006, only slightly below the 3.7 percent average age in the previous two quarters. The recent behavior of the leading index suggests that moderate to strong economic growth should continue in the near term.
Leading IndicatorsFour of the six components that make up the leading index increased in March. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, job placings, and the Spanish equity price index. The negative contributors were order books survey and the inverted long-term government bond yield.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in March, the leading index now stands at 143.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in February and increased 0.7 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the index increased 1.8 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators:All four components that make up the coincident index increased in March. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are final household consumption*, retail sales survey, real imports*, and industrial production excluding construction.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in March, the coincident index now stands at 154.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in February and increased 0.6 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the index increased 2.4 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) May 18, 2006. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.