Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, April 18, 2006
The Conference Board announced today that both the leading and the coincident indexes for Spain increased 0.3 percent in February.
- The leading index increased again in February for the fourth consecutive month. The Spanish contribution to Euro M2 continued to be the largest positive contributor to the leading index. With February’s gain, the growth rate of the leading index has picked up to about a 3.0 to 4.0 percent annual rate, from the 1.0 to 2.0 percent rate in the last quarter of 2005, but it is still slightly below the 6.0 percent rate in the second and third quarters of 2005. In addition, the strength among the leading indicators has continued to be widespread in the last several months.
- The coincident index also increased again in February, and it remains on a rising trend. The growth rate of the coincident index picked up in recent months, with the largest contribution coming from final household consumption. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 3.7 percent annual rate in the second half of 2005 (including a 3.9 percent rate in the fourth quarter). The behavior of the leading index in recent months suggests that moderate to strong economic growth should continue in the near term.
Leading IndicatorsFour of the six components that make up the leading index increased in February. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the Spanish equity price index, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and job placings*. The negative contributors were order books survey and the inverted long-term government bond yield.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in February, the leading index now stands at 143.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in January and increased 0.7 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index increased 2.1 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators:Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in February. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction, and retail sales survey. The real imports* declined in February.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in February, the coincident index now stands at 153.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in January and increased 0.3 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index increased 2.5 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) April 14, 2006. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.