Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, March 21, 2006
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.8 percent and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in January.
- The leading index increased sharply again in January, and the strength among the leading indicators has been somewhat widespread in the last several months. In the last quarter of 2005, the growth rate of the leading index gradually slowed to about a 2.5 – 3.5 percent annual rate, down from the 5.0 – 6.0 percent range in the second and third quarters of 2005, but with the recent gains it has picked up slightly.
- The coincident index increased again in January, and it remains on a rising trend. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 3.9 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2005, slightly above the 2.5 to 3.5 percent range (average annual rate) in the last two years. The behavior of the leading index in recent months suggests that moderate economic growth should continue in the near term.
Leading Indicators All six components that make up the leading index increased in January. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the capital equipment component of industrial production, the order books survey, the Spanish equity price index, job placings, and the inverted long-term government bond yield.
With the increase of 0.8 percent in January, the leading index now stands at 143.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in December and increased 0.1 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index increased 1.8 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
Coincident Indicators: Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in January. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports*. The retail sales survey declined in January.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in January, the coincident index now stands at 152.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in December and increased 0.4 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index increased 2.1 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) March 20, 2006. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.