Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, January 24, 2006
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.1 percent and the coincident index increased 0.4 percent in November.
- The leading index increased slightly in November, and the strengths and weakness among the leading indicators have been balanced in recent months. The leading index has been fluctuating around an essentially flat trend since June 2005. In addition, the six-month growth rate of the leading index has moderated from almost a 6.0 percent annual rate in June to about a 2.5 percent rate in November.
- The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, increased again in November. It has been on a steadily rising trend but its growth has also moderated somewhat in recent months. At the same time, real GDP has been fluctuating in the 2.5 to 3.5 percent range (annual rate) in the last two years, including a 3.2 percent rate in the third quarter of 2005. The behavior of the leading index in recent months is still consistent with continued expansion of the economy, but its growth rate is likely to be moderate in the near term.
Leading IndicatorsThree of the six components that make up the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the order books survey, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, and the Spanish equity price index. The inverted long-term government bond yield, job placings, and the capital equipment component of industrial production decreased in November.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in November, the leading index now stands at 141.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.1 percent in October and increased 0.2 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 1.2 percent, and three of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators:All four components that make up the coincident index increased in November. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, the retail sales survey, real imports*, and industrial production excluding construction.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in November, the coincident index now stands at 151.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in October and increased 0.3 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 1.5 percent, and three of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) January 20, 2006. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include job placings.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.