Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, December 20, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain declined 0.2 percent, while the coincident index increased 0.2 percent in October.
- The leading index fell slightly in October, but there were upward revisions to the leading index in the previous several months due to data revisions in the job placings component. Despite this month’s decline, the leading index has been growing at about a 2.0 to 3.0 percent annual rate in recent months, slightly up from about a 1.0 to 1.5 percent rate in the second half of 2004. However, the strength among the leading indicators has been somewhat less widespread in the last four months.
- The coincident index increased in October for the third consecutive month, which keeps it on a steadily rising trend. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2005, only slightly below the 3.6 percent average rate in the first half of the year, but this is still within the 2.5 to 3.5 percent range it has fluctuated over the last two years. The behavior of the leading index in recent months suggests that the economy is likely to continue growing moderately in the near term.
Leading IndicatorsFour of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in October. The negative contributors—in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—are the order books survey, the inverted long-term government bond yield, the Spanish equity price index, and job placings. The Spanish contribution to Euro M2 and the capital equipment component of industrial production increased in October.
With the decrease of 0.2 percent in October, the leading index now stands at 140.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in September and declined 0.1 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 1.7 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
Coincedent Indicators:Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in October. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports*. The retail sales survey declined in October.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in October, the coincident index now stands at 150.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in both September and August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 1.3 percent, and three of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) December 16, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include job placings.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.