Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, October 19, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain declined 0.4 percent, while the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in August.
- The leading index fell in August, and July’s small increase was revised down to no change. Despite the decline in August, the leading index has been growing at about a 3.0 to 4.0 percent annual rate in recent months, up from about a 1.0 to 1.5 percent rate in the second half of 2004.
- The coincident index, which has been on a steady upward trend, increased again in August. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 3.7 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2005 (including a 3.5 percent in the second quarter), and has been fluctuating around a 2.5 to 3.5 percent range in the last two years. The behavior of the leading index in recent months is consistent with continued economic growth in the near term.
Leading IndicatorsFive of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in August. The negative contributors—in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—are the order books survey, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the inverted long-term government bond yield, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and the Spanish equity price index. Job placings increased in August.
With the decline of 0.4 percent in August, the leading index now stands at 139.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index was unchanged in July and increased 0.7 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the index increased 1.4 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
Coincedent Indicators: All four components that make up the coincident index increased in August. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, real imports*, the retail sales survey, and industrial production excluding construction.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in August, the coincident index now stands at 149.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.1 percent in July and increased 0.3 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the index increased 1.2 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) October 18, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include job placings.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.