Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, August 23, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 1.2 percent and the coincident index increased 0.4 percent in June.
- The leading index increased sharply in June following two consecutive increases. As a result, the growth rate of the leading index has picked up to about a 4.0 to 5.0 percent annual rate in recent months. The Spanish contribution to Euro M2 made the largest contribution to the sharp increase in June but the growth rate of the leading index has been steadily increasing and the strength among the leading indicators has been widespread in recent months.
- The coincident index increased again in June, keeping it on a steady upward trend. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 3.6 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2005 (including a 3.7 percent in the second quarter), slightly above the 2.5 to 3.5 percent range it has been fluctuating in for the last two years. The continued strength in the leading index in recent months suggests that the strong economic growth reported in the first half of 2005 is likely to continue in the near term.
Leading Indicators: All six components that make up the leading index increased in June. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the capital equipment component of industrial production, the inverted long-term government bond yield, the Spanish equity price index, job placings, and the order books survey.
With the increase of 1.2 percent in June, the leading index now stands at 140.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in May and increased 0.9 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 2.8 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
Coincedent Indicators: All four components that make up the coincident index increased in June. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, the retail sales survey, real imports*, and industrial production excluding construction.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in June, the coincident index now stands at 149.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in May and increased 0.5 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 1.7 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA: The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) August 19, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include job placings.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.